MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines remains under a La Niña alert, with weak La Niña conditions likely to persist until the February-March-April season, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Wednesday.
hot slots“It’s still a La Niña alert,” Pagasa Assistant Weather Services chief Ana Liza Solis said during the agency’s climate forum.
Pagasa pointed out that under a La Niña alert, higher chances of above normal rainfall is expected in the country which may cause floods and rain-induced landslides.
Article continues after this advertisement(Data visualization from the DOST / Pagasa)
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Solis, however clarified that this La Niña episode is expected to be “weak and short-lived.”
Article continues after this advertisement“A weak, short-lived La Niña ang posible pong maranasan natin, at least up to the February-March-April season,” she explained.
Article continues after this advertisement(A weak, short-lived La Niña is likely to occur, at least until the February-March-April season.)
Article continues after this advertisement“Based on probabilistic Enso (El Niño Southern Oscillation) forecast, three overlapping three months lang po siya posibleng magtagal,” Solis added.
The three overlapping three-month periods are as follows: December-January-February, January-February-March, and February-March-April.
Article continues after this advertisementSolis explained that a “full-blown” La Niña requires sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific to stay at -0.5 degrees Celsius or lower for at least five overlapping three-month periods.
Current Pagasa forecasts, however, suggest that the La Niña episode will only last for three overlapping seasons.
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“Makikita po na at least five overlapping three months dapat mag-stay siya ng -0.5 degrees centigrade or below average, pero ang forecast natin ay hanggang tatlong overlapping three months lamang,” she clarified.
(It must remain at -0.5 degrees Celsius or below for at least five overlapping three-month periods, but our forecast indicates it will only last for three.)
“That is why hindi po siya magaganap na La Niña advisory, pero La Niña alert ang nararapat,” Solis maintained.
(That is why a La Niña advisory is not issued, but a La Niña alert is appropriate.)
Potential impact of weak La NiñaDespite the short-lived and weak nature of the La Niña, Solis warned that it could still bring above-normal rainfall to the country.
“This condition increases the likelihood of having above-normal rainfall conditions, which could lead to potential adverse impacts such as heavy rainfall, floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides over highly vulnerable areas,” Solis warned.
“Highly exposed po ang mga areas situated along the eastern sections ng ating bansa, lalo na ngayong nasa northeast monsoon tayo,” she added.
(Areas along the eastern sections of the country are highly exposed, especially during the northeast monsoon season.)
READ: What looming La Niña means for global temperatures
The La Niña alert was raised on January 7 as recent conditions met the criteria for its presence: a one-month SST anomaly of -0.5 degrees Celsius and the expectation that the three-month SST anomaly would also meet the -0.5 threshold.
Pagasa expects the tropical Pacific to transition back to Enso-neutral conditions—when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present—by March-April-May 2025.
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Enso-neutral conditions are characterized by near-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, falling between -0.5 degrees Celsius and +0.5 degrees Celsius and resulting in relatively stable weather patterns55bmw, Pagasa explained.
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